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Agenda Overview

Sunday 16 October

15.00 -18.00 Pre- Registration

18.00 – 20.30 Ice-breaker reception

Network in style in the beautiful city of Lisbon

Day One - Monday 17th October 2016


9:00 Opening Remarks

Alex Tyumenin, Managing Director, Coaltrans Conferences and Euromoney Energy Events


9.05 A medium-long term forecast of world energy mix

  • Will more Asian countries have the desire and resources to take up natural gas/LNG or have they missed the boat?
  • What happens to energy mix if renewable energy storage can be made possible on an industrial scale? What are the perspectives of renewables in the EU?
  • What energy fuel mix?  Are countries leaving coal in the near future?
  • Which technologies make coal a potential fuel for the future and not just one for the past?

Mr Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the IEA’s Energy Markets and Security Directorate


9.30 Energy Union – coal’s role in the EU’s planned shift to renewables

  • Coal supply and demand across the EU – the world’s third largest coal importer
  • The EU climate and energy package – 2030 targets to be met through emissions trading
  • Growth of renewable generation and the need for flexible thermal generation
  • Coal- and gas-fired power generation – a comparison of real-world emissions

Dr. Wolfgang Cieslik, Board Member, STEAG GmbH; President, Euracoal; President, German Coal Importers Association

09.50 Followed by onstage interview with Dr Wolfgang Cieslik


10.05 A note pre COP 22: what it is, what it isn’t and what it means for coal and LNG

  • What the supply expansion of LNG means for gas: a global market, converged prices and higher demand
  • Power sector coal to gas fuel switching – the main battleground starting now
  • Oil, gas, carbon, coal – a perfect storm of risks for coal, but how much demand is at risk?

Trevor Sikorski, Head of natural gas, coal and carbon research, Energy Aspects


10.30 Onstage interview with Ana Cristina Nunes, Regulation and Market Director, EDP



SESSION 2 (11.30-12.30) Oxford Style Debate

“This house believes that Chinese coal production and consumption alone drives the global coal price”

Moderator: Michael Hale, Director, Balamara Resources Limited

Proposer: Colin Hamilton, Head of Commodities Research, Macquarie Securities Group

Opposer: Jonny Sultoon, Research Director Global Coal Markets, Wood MacKenzie



SESSION 3 (14.15 – 15.​10)

Chair: Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, IEA

14.15 Ten minute five-year forecast for coal prices
Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, IEA

14.25 How likely are we to see a significant upturn in the coal industry?

  • Can we expect demand and supply to balance out in 2017?
  • Are curtailments of coal orders having material impacts on excess coal supply?
  • How much market share can Russia and Colombia take from Australia, Indonesia and the US?
  • How optimistic should we be about emerging coal demand from Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and the Middle-East?
  • How correlated are oil, coal and LNG prices becoming?
  • What impact can oil price shocks have on the LNG, coal and shipping industries?
  • How do oil prices alter on mining costs and freight rates?

Chair: Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, IEA


Hayden Atkins, Coal Consultant, Argus Media

Guillaume Perret, Director, Perret Associates

Rodrigo Echeverri, Head of Global Energy Research, Noble

Victor I. Valenzuela, Global Director Fuels and Freight, AES Corporation



SESSION 4A (15.40-17.00)

Chair: Holly Watson-Steward, Head of Sales, Coaltrans Conferences

15.40 Can we know the true value or price of coal given the illiquidity that exists in the market?

  • Is it realistic to expect all coal producers to conform to coal index prices?
  • Are traders keeping coal producers in business by taking away price risk from assets and providing regular cash flow?
  • How can we ensure that illiquidity in the market is not used to manipulate prices?
  • How far from the index price are trades taking place?
  • How do the FCA plan to tackle this?
  • Physical / financial spread

Gustavo Fernandez, Director Coal and Freight, Uniper


16.10 Anthracite price forecast

  • What premium should be placed on Ultra High Grade anthracite?
  • Main factors and indicators influencing the price of anthracite
  • Current pricing trends for anthracite

Andrey V. Tarasko, Deputy General Manager, International sales development, Siberian Anthracite


16.40 Questions and discussion

17.00 Close of Day One


Session 4B: (15.40 – 16.40)

Roundtables - An opportunity to combine networking and information sharing

Each roundtable discussion will host around 10 participants, led by an expert in the relevant field, and will last for one hour. Places are offered on a first come, first served basis upon arrival in the Live Lounge.

1. Indian pet coke imports analysis and trends for 2017

Jitendra Roychoudhury, Research Fellow, KAPSARC

2. Disassociating our industry and Co2 from climate change, once and for all

Lars Shernikau, President, HMS Bergbau – Singapore and Germany

3. Outlook for thermal coal prices in Q1 2017

Rodrigo Echeverri, Head of Global Energy Research, Noble


17.00 Drinks Reception UpScale Bar – 9th Floor EPIC SANA Lisbon
Sponsored by Coeclerici


Day Two – Tuesday 18th October 2016

9.30 Opening Remarks

Holly Watson-Steward, Head of Sales, Coaltrans Conferences

SESSION 5 (9.30 – 10.40)

Chair: Lars Schernikau, President, HMS Bergbau AG

09.35 Chair’s welcoming remarks


09.45 What are the better performing steel products and their coal requirements through 2018?

  • What material impact has Chinese steel overproduction had on European steel makers so far?
  • 500,000 steel workers and 1.3 million coal workers laid off in China - can European nations recover as steel makers?
  • Will there be more consolidation of European steel makers?
  • Developments in Ukraine’s steel industry
  • Will Brexit affect the steel industry and where does protectionism by EU governments lie?

Yevgeny Shmakov, Project leader - purchasing and logistics, METINVEST Holding


10.05 India’s performance update: Domestic coal production vs government targets

  • Key infrastructure developments: what’s the level of commitment to remove the bottlenecks in domestic coal transport?
  • Will India invest in coal projects abroad to secure suitable coal that meets their requirements, given their depleting resources?
  • Sectoral coal demand in India and subsequent import demand

Mr. Shyam Nandan Prasad, Director (Marketing), Coal India (CIL)


10.25 Questions and discussion

10.30 Networking refreshment break


Session 6 (11.10 – 12.45)

Chair: Howard Gatiss, CEO, CMC Coal Marketing Company Ltd


11.10 How much can the Middle East and Turkey support Atlantic coal trade?

  • Will proposed coal fired power plants in Turkey be actualised?
  • Egypt: does the infrastructure exist – and, if not, who will build it?
  • What is the outlook for the cement industry in the region?
  • What signs are there that Egypt and Morocco are favouring coal?


Sirrin Uyanik, CEO, ISKEN-Iskenderun Enerji Uretim ve Ticaret AS

Umit Cetin, Assistant General Manager – Purchasing and Logistics, Cimsa Cimento Sanayive Ticaret A.S.

Waleed Abouraya, President and CEO, MEBPC Cairo


12.00 Can the US come back as a coal exporter and how quickly?

  • Challenges to ramping up production volumes in US mines in current conditions
  • Which mines are confirmed and expected to close?
  • Prospects for reopening coal mines in the future - will the law permit it?
  • US coal qualities integral to international steel mills


George Dethlefsen, CEO, Corsa Coal

Bob Bennett, Chief Marketing Officer, Blackhawk Mining


12.30 Networking lunch and close of conference