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Agenda Overview

Day One

08.00 Exhibition opens

09.00 Welcome & opening remarks
Orson Francescone, Managing Director, Coaltrans Conferences
Chen Jiang, Director-General, National Center for International Cooperation in Work Safety, SAWS

Session 1

09.30 How much lower do coal prices need to drop before we see a rebalancing of the market?

  • Forecast for coal prices 2016-2017
  • What role is there for traders in the current market and how much is being sold direct to end-users?
  • Supply cuts and regional demand growth – Interplay between buy and sell-side markets and why do these not always cancel each other out?

Dr. Fabio Gabrieli, Director, Dry Bulk Analysis and Strategy, Mercuria Energy Trading

10.00 China’s 13th five year plan (2016-2020) – What role will coal have in China’s future energy mix?

  • Has China’s coal demand already peaked?
  • Status of China’s existing and forthcoming energy mix announcements regarding the 13th FYP
  • How much greater share can renewables take within China’s energy mix?
  • Planned implementation of a nationwide emissions trading scheme from 2017
  • Could Chinese domestic coal be traded in USD in future?
  • Outcome of Paris COP meetings discussion and implications for China’s coal industry

Wang Xiaolin, Deputy Director, National Energy Administration, NDRC

10.20 How quickly can China add another 700mt production capacity and is this a likely scenario?

  • Impact of mine consolidation in Shanxi province on region’s production volumes
  • Costs of production by regional mines – Where does it make most economic sense to increase production volumes?
  • Impact of production increases on domestic coal prices – Which import qualities will remain in demand?


Wang Xianzheng, President, China National Coal Association


10.40 – 11.25 Networking refreshment break


 

Session 2

11.25 Three month spot coal price forecast - Domestic vs imported coal prices in China

  • Predicted coal consumption and electricity generation in China
  • Drivers of imported coal prices and supply-side availability
  • Impact of rail tariff reduction and trucking rates on the waterborne coal market


William Wang, Senior China Analyst, Argus Media

11.55 – 13.00 CEO dialogue – Interviews led by Orson Francescone, Managing Director, Coaltrans Conferences and Chen Jiang, Director-General, National Center for International Cooperation in Work Safety, SAWS

  • What are import/ production plans of China’s largest coal producers?
  • Will Chinese coal producers see a write-down of coal assets if prices remain low?
  • How is consolidation among international suppliers affecting downward pressure on coal prices?
  • The role of traders as margins become tighter and more utilities buy direct
  • What will be the greatest challenges facing China’s coal industry in 2016?


Zhang Youxi, Chairman, Datong Coalmine Group
Zhang Yuzhuo, Chairman, China Shenhua Group
Hu Zhihao, Vice General Manager, China Coal Energy Group


 13.00 Networking Lunch


 After lunch delegates are given the choice of attending one of two sessions:

Session 3A

14.50 How many of China’s thermal coal mines are loss making at current prices?

  • How much financial support is being offered to China’s thermal coal mines at a local and national level?
  • What have debt restructuring reforms and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform achieved so far in supporting China’s coal industry?
  • Is China’s coal industry likely to see more SOE reform?


Chen Shao, Senior Research Associate, Macquarie Securities

15.10 – 16.00 PANEL DISCUSSION – Chinese utility companies’ perspective on domestic vs imported coal

  • Electricity demand – At what capacity are plants running?
  • How are power tariffs impacting on fuel choices?
  • Are coal imports competing with domestic coals only in terms of cost?
  • Which coal qualities will be highest in demand 2016-2017?


Panellists:

Bai Tao, Director of Coal, Qinfa Group
Hu Bo, General Manager, Indonesia, China Datang Corporation
Kong Xiangyue, General Manager, China Certification Company of CCIC
Zhou Jianhua, General Manager, Zhejiang Pangxin Electric Power and Energy Co.,Ltd


 16.00 – 16.30 Networking refreshment break


 

Session 3B – Roundtables (14.30 – 15.30)

Private Roundtable Discussions - An opportunity to combine networking and information sharing

Each roundtable discussion will host around 10 participants, led by an expert in the relevant field, and will last for one hour. Places are offered on a first come, first served basis upon arrival in the Live Lounge.

Roundtable 1 - What demand growth opportunities is the cement and chemical sector offering for coal suppliers?
Phil Ren
, Chairman & President, China Coal Importers Association           

Roundtable 2 – How is the role of coal trader changing in the current market environment?
Tony Liu, Operations Manager, Tailai Coal

Roundtable 3 – China’s economic health in 2016-2017 – What does this mean for commodities?
Kobus van der Wath,
Founder and Group Managing Director, The Beijing Axis

Roundtable 4 - Which markets might China target for international exports and how will this impact international suppliers?
A Senior Representative, Shandong Sante Energy Co.

Session 4

16.30 What will be China’s new economic ‘norm’?

  • Transition to a consumer and service driven economy – How is this affecting commodities?
  • Government strategy around import/ export dynamics – How soon could we see a strengthening of RMB?
  • The economic health of state-owned coal companies in various coal price scenarios


Qian Pingfan, Director and Research Fellow, Industry Economics Research Dept.of Development Research Center, State Council of P.R.C.  

PANEL DISCUSSION – How well are international thermal coal suppliers adapting to decreased Chinese coal imports?

  • What coal qualities are highest in demand from Chinese importers?
  • In which regions are international suppliers focusing their marketing efforts?
  • What is the role of traders in an increasingly consolidated market?
  • How much flexibility is being built into contracts amid weaker Chinese demand?


Panellists:
Edmund Tan, Marketing Manager, PT Bayan Resources Tbk
Jason Ping, Head of Trading, China Coal Solution
Liu Chen Zhi, Marketing Manager, PT Mandiri Intiperkasa
Gary Vernon,
Global Head of Coal Trading, Macquarie Bank Limited


17.30 Evening Networking Reception
Relax after an intensive first day and enjoy some drinks with existing and potential clients

 

DAY TWO – Friday 15th April 2016

09.30 Welcome and opening remarks
Sarah Robertson, Head of Conference Production, Coaltrans Conferences

Session 5

09.40 Are China’s steel exports set to grow further in 2016?

  • • Volumes of China’s coking coal demand and supply sources
  • • How many Chinese mills are operating at full capacity?
  • • Economics of steel production in current price environment
  • • Will China’s steel mills see a greater shift towards exports?


Li Xinchuang, President, China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute


10.00 – 10.40 CEO Dialogue - Interviews led by Orson Francescone, Managing Director, Coaltrans Conferences and Chen Jiang, Director-General, National Center for International Cooperation in Work Safety, SAWS

He Tiancai, Chairman, Shanxi Jincheng Anthracite Group
Wang Fengshan, Managing Director, Risun Group


10.40 How is development of China’s energy grid supporting renewable energy growth?

  • What does this mean for renewable generation share?
  • How soon can huge installed energy capacity be connected to the grid?
  • What further laws and regulations need to be defined around renewable energy?
  • Feasibility of transporting energy from Western Power plants to Eastern regions?


Wang Zhixuan, Secretary General, China Electricity Council 


11.00 Networking refreshment break


 

Session 6

11.30 An update on the cost structure of international metallurgical coal suppliers

  • What new landscape of metallurgical coal suppliers is emerging?
  • At what price level will we see renewed interest in metcoal asset development?
  • Which coal grades are most in demand and where?


11.50 – 12.20 PANEL DISCUSSION - How much longer will Chinese steel producers continue to produce at $80 below cost?

  • • How much longer can international steel producers survive at current steel prices?
  • • Is there any hope for an upswing in steel demand in the near future?
  • • Flexibility in coke blends among Chinese steel companies
  • • Will Mongolia’s coking coal deposits remain uneconomical for the long term?

Panellists to be announced in due course


12.20 – 12.45 How are freight rates impacting competitive supply into China? USA/ Russia/ Australia etc.

  • Coastal shipping freight rates and availability – How is this impacting on competition from international suppliers?
  • How has consolidation among shipping companies affected existing contracts?
  • Coal stocks and inventory levels at China’s northern ports
  • Freight value within a CFR price – Can this give some suppliers a competitive edge?


Panellists:
Sverre Bjørn Svenning, Director, Fearnleys
Song Yan, Senior Manager, China Charters


12.45 Networking Lunch

 

Session 7 (14.00 – 15.00)

Private Roundtable Discussions - An opportunity to combine networking and information sharing

Each roundtable discussion will host around 10 participants, led by an expert in the relevant field, and will last for one hour. Places are offered on a first come, first served basis upon arrival in the Live Lounge.

Roundtable 1 – Priorities of a Chinese power utility in coal procurement
Zhou Jianhua,
General Manager, Zhejiang Pangxin Electric Power and Energy Co.,Ltd

Roundtable 2 – What impact will the government’s environmental protection policy have on the Chinese coal market, its coal imports and exports?
Tobey Li,
Senior Analyst, JYD Information Co., Ltd.

Roundtable 3 Overcoming barriers for international coal producers to trade in coal futures in China
Liu Yi,
Senior Manager, Galaxy Futures 


 15.00 Close of Conference