SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER 2009
1800-2030: Welcome Reception, QEII Conference Centre, hosted by Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International plc. FANTASTIC PRIZES TO BE WON.
Speech from CEO Cliff De Souza
MONDAY, 26 OCTOBER 2009
0700 Registration and Refreshments - QEII Conference Centre
0800 Exhibition opens
SESSION 1: KEYNOTE OPENING 09.00 – 10.30 Presentations include papers from the UK’s Minister of Energy, putting coal firmly at the centre of the Government’s energy policy; an outline of the importance of coal in the US – the world’s second largest producer; and a paper on the challenges and opportunities facing the coal industry from one of the largest international mining companies.
Opening remarks - Gerard Strahan, Managing Director, Coaltrans Conferences Ltd.
Chair: John Harris, Chair, UK Coal Forum
Welcome address - Mike O’Brien, UK Minister of State for the Department of Energy and Climate Change
Developments in the US energy sector - the impact on coal producers - Steven F. Leer, Chairman and CEO, Arch Coal
- Adapting to the new power and demand outlook
- Competition from other fossil fuel sectors
- Climate change legislation and the response and effect on the US coal industry
- Opportunities for US coal in international seaborne markets
Coal into the future, a few hard truths!- Neil Dhar, Chief Commercial Officer, Anglo Coal
- The role of coal as a supplier of base load energy
- Supply side difficulties
- Environmental stresses
Questions & Answers and Refreshment Break Hosted by Endulwini Resources Ltd
SESSION 2: SECOND KEYNOTE 11.00 –12.45 Coal’s role will be examined as a fundamental fuel in a world increasingly concerned about security of supply issues, with specific papers covering the EU and two of Europe’s largest energy consuming countries. Chair: Nigel Yaxley, Managing Director, CoalImp – Association of UK Coal Importers
World energy outlook: What role for coal? - Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
- Effects of economic slow-down on energy demand and investment
- Long-term investment in replacement of energy production
- An overview of the content of IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Continuing to count on coal for the EU's energy future - certainties and challenges - Heinz Hilbrecht, Director DG Energy and Transport, European Commission
- Outlook on the role of coal in EU's security of supply
- Empowering coal through CCS in the context of EU's climate change policy
- Sustainable coal - a common task
To help you see the need for UK mined coal - Jon Lloyd, Chief Executive, UK Coal
- Coal's position within the UK energy mix
- Potential for indigenous coal
- Moving forward in a carbon constrained world
The outlook for the future of coal-fired power stations in Germany - Jochen Oesterlink, Head of Coal Business Development, EnBW Trading GmbH
- Electricity demand in Germany
- Capacity development of coal-fired power stations
- Long-term import coal demand in Germany
- Energy value-added chain, opportunities for upstream integration
Questions & Answers and Lunch
LUNCHEON DISCUSSION TABLES
SESSION 3: NEW COAL PRODUCTION FRONTIERS
14.15 –15.45 A review of newly developing coal production regions – examination of financing needs, mine and logistical investments, and markets.
Chair: Charles Kernot, Director Metals and Mining, Evolution Securities
Chairman’s opening remarks – coal's new production frontiers
Botswana: A new source of thermal coal - Eddie Scholtz, COO Mining, CIC Energy
- Export potential and transport channel options
- Quality of coal
- Captive power projects and links into South Africa
Mozambique: The development of a major new coal basin - Dr Henrique Pinheiro, Group Marketing Manager, Riversdale Holdings (Pty) Ltd.
- Mozambique's coking and thermal coal potential
- Coal logistics and infrastructure
- Mozambique as an investment destination
British Columbia - a prime source of metallurgical coals - John Hogg, President and Chief Executive, Western Canadian Coal Corp
- The geological endowment - high quality coal/complicated geology
- Infrastructure - the benefits of two rail routes to the coast and proximity to China/Japan
- M&A potential - consolidation to cut costs
Mongolia: The future as a major new coal supplier
- Recent developments in Mongolian coal production
- Export routes - the challenges and future solutions
- Potential markets - China
Questions & Answers and Refreshment Break Hosted by Endulwini Resources Ltd
SESSION 4: COKING COAL 16.15 –17.30 Steel production has fallen by over 15% due to the international economic and industrial downturn. This is inevitably having an effect on coking coal and coke demand as well as supply. Chair: Jim Lennon, Executive Director, Macquarie Bank
Overview of recent steel and coal market trends - Jim Lennon, Executive Director - Commodities Research, Macquarie Securities
- Medium term supply/demand outlook - looking for the next bull market
- China - the next seaborne growth market?
Export metallurgical coal supply response under future demand and price scenarios - Graham Wailes, Executive Director, MinAxis Pty Ltd
- 2009 export production cut-backs and project deferrals
- The pattern of supply growth under future demand and price scenarios
- Outlook for emerging and potential country suppliers to the seaborne market
- Mine projects currently planned or underway
Managing steel raw materials in today's turbulent markets - Kees Gerretse, Director Supplies and Transport, Tata Steel Group/Corus
- Overseeing inventories and carryovers
- Blending different grades of coking coal / economics of semi-soft vs. hard coking coal
- Future security of supply issues
Open discussion using Audience Response System
To include above speakers and:
Ron Beveridge, Head of Steel Making Raw Materials, Ronly Holdings Ltd
Oleg Rozenberg, President, Mechel Trading AG
End of Day One
19.00-21.00 Gala Evening Reception Sponsored by Anglo Coal / Science Musuem, London
TUESDAY 27 OCTOBER 2009
0700 Registration and Refreshments
0830 Exhibition Opens
SESSION 5: THERMAL COAL OUTLOOK – FORECAST AND DEBATE -
09.00 –10.45 The annual thermal coal outlook session will look at the effects of cutbacks in power generation by energy intensive industries and ultimately on coal producers. An examination of thermal coal supply and demand outlook will also be debated amongst speakers, panelists, and the delegates. Chair: Martin Bloemendal, Director, Energy Edge Ltd
World thermal coal markets outlook - Wolfgang Ritschel, Managing Director, Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V (Association of German Hard Coal Importers)
- Demand scenarios in challenging economic times
- New sources of supply and shipping economics
- New influences on today's thermal coal markets
The outlook for thermal coal consumption in Japan - Masato Uchiyama, Director, Energy Business Department, J-POWER
- Power sector electricity output
- Security of supply issues
Future outlook for Poland and Central Europe's coal markets - Tadeusz Podbial, Coal Purchasing Director, Weglokoks. S.A
- Poland's energy outlook - domestic coal production and reserves
- Poland's coal exports and the move towards imports - effect on the regional coal supplies and transport logistics
- Weglokoks - present and future role in coal trading for Poland and Central Europe
Open Discussion using Audience Response System Panelists including the above speakers and:
Howard Gatiss, CEO, CMC Coal Marketing Company Ltd
John O’Neill, Coal & Biofuels Trading Manager, Scottish Power
Ziga Vrhovec, Director, Impakta Holdings d.o.o.
Refreshment Break Hosted by Endulwini Resources Ltd
POWER NETWORKING SESSION
SESSION 6: DRY BULK - FINDING A NEW LEVEL
11.30 –13.00 Following the dramatic falls in the economics of dry cargo shipping – what are the prospects for recovery in charter rates and how will the industry cope with the overhang of extraordinary levels of ship building orders and scheduled deliveries over the next two years? Chair: Warren Brook, Managing Director, Simpson Spence and Young
Dry bulk freight market outlook - John Kearsey, Head of Consultancy & Research, Simpson Spence and Young
- Can Chinese demand rescue the dry bulk market?
- How quickly will fleet supply adjust to the transformation in market circumstances?
Adapting to the changed dry cargo shipping market landscape - a ship owner's views - Trond Harald Klaveness, CEO, Torvald Klaveness Group
- Protection against counter party risk
- Changes in relationships and the preservation of long-term relationships in changed markets
- General outlook for renewed business growth
Derivatives and indexes in today's market environment - Niels Wage, Vice President, Freight, BHP Billiton
- Physical clearing
- Index linked freight agreements
- FFA impact on physical markets, liquidity
Open Discussion using Audience Response System and Lunch
Choice of Streamed Sessions:
STREAM 1:
SESSION A: TRADING AND RISK MANAGEMENT
14.15-15.45
This session will examine the way end users need to adapt to new trading mechanisms and to doing business in a credit constrained world. Increased counter party risk and the role of clearing mechanisms will be examined and debated amongst speakers, panelists, and the delegates
Chair: Jared Baker, Director, Commodities, Credit Suisse
Global coal trading - the next ten years
Trading time-line: 1998 - Present
Product evolution: Physical; financial; futures & clearing
Hedgers & speculators: Interesting trends
Steve Doyle, President, Doyle Trading Consultants
Market volatility and counterparty risk
Extreme price volatility and market disruption - a new reality
Moving away from long term fixed price arrangements toward index linking
Derivative based risk management
Peter Aitken, Coal Risk Portfolio Manager, Vitol Group of Companies
Managing volume and price risk in volatile markets
Interaction between financial and physical markets
Employing efficient strategies for risk management
Graham Parker, Manager Coal Trade Europe, E.ON Energy Trading AG
Questions & Answers
Refreshment Break Hosted by
Endulwini Resources Ltd
SESSION B: ENVIRONMENTAL DEVELOPMENTS AND THE IMPACT ON THE COAL INDUSTRY
16.00 –17.30
This session will look at Carbon Capture and Storage developments and the prospects and practicalities for significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions while examining the EU ETS as well as the expected arrival of cap and trade solutions in the US.
Chair: David Brewer, Director General, Confederation of UK Coal Producers
‘Keeping coal in the mix’ - the CCS imperative
The politics of paying for and financing CCS
Building alliances
Mapping a way forward
Tom Burke, Visiting Professor, Imperial College, London
A role for coal in a climate challenged world
Meeting national / global energy needs with coal and renewables
Public responses to innovations in coal technology
Mitigating carbon emissions - future possibilities of direct air capture of carbon dioxide
Neil Crumpton, Energy Specialist and Anti-nuclear Campaigner, Friends of the Earth EW&NI
Coal and the price of carbon, 2009
The EU-ETS is now fixed in place for the next 11 years: What is the overall verdict for coal?
The US has moved fast in 2009 towards a made-in-America cap and trade scheme – how will this bite on coal?
Developing country emissions from coal-burning power stations; what has changed in 2009 in terms of incentives and support?
Henry Derwent, President, IETA
Practical Concepts for CO
2 control in the power sector
Considerations for electricity generators and coal producers
Impact of low cv coals and economic considerations for end users
Questions & Answers
STREAM 2:
SESSION A: COAL TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS
14.15 –15.45
The important and increasing role of the European and US railroads in the delivery of coal will be examined, as well as the offshore loading facilities and innovative port handling developments in the UK will be covered.
Chair: Harmen Sliep, President, HES Beheer N.V.
Prospects for a pan-European rail network in a post liberalisation world
Implications of rail liberalisation and mergers by former state railways on coal transport
Who are the new players in the overland freight landscape?
Will the rail network be able to cope with increased tonnages?
Could rail soon become a competitor to deep sea transport?
Ralf Jahncke, President & CEO, Transcare AG
Developments in offshore logistics
Transshipment solutions and innovations
Circumventing port handling constraints
Shore terminals vs. transshipment facilities
Andrea Clavarino, Managing Director, Coeclerici Logistics
The role of railways in opening US coal reserves to the world
Coal movement in the USA
What lessons can logistics providers learn from the increased profitability of American railways?
Weak freight rates, increased rail profitability in the US: A blessing for end-users in the Atlantic and Pacific markets?
Stevan Bobb, Group Vice President – Coal Marketing, BNSF Railway Company
Developments in British coal port handling
Review of recent developments
Future port expansion plans
Customer and commodity profile developments
John Fitzgerald, Port Director Grimsby and Immingham, Associated British Ports
Questions & Answers
Refreshment Break Hosted by
Endulwini Resources Ltd
SESSION B: RISK MANAGEMENT FOR DEFAULTS IN SUPPLY AND FREIGHT CONTRACTS – HOW BEST TO SECURE YOUR POSITION
16.00 –17.30
This workshop will explore the key issues and risks raised by defaults in physical and derivative coal supply and freight contracts. It will also look at global methods of securing your position against counterparty risk.
Workshop Leaders:
Rory Gogarty & Damian Honey & Sarah Taylor, Partners, Holman Fenwick Willan LLP
Physical and financial supply and freight contracts – key legal developments
Typical breaches and excuses
Remedies including termination and novation of contract
How to approach the current carnage in the COA market
Securing your financial position prior to legal proceedings including through mediation, Rule B attachments, ship arrest and other conservatory measures
Legal Surgery
Immediately after this presentation Holman Fenwick Willan LLP will be hosting a legal surgery at which individuals will be able to raise questions of the speakers in a more personal setting.
1745
Close of formal conference proceedings - drinks served in the exhibition area
Evening Industry Receptions (By invitation)